On the Crisis in Ethiopia
As Ethiopia, once hailed as an African success story, descends into ethnic violence and turmoil, with cities being bombed and refugees fleeing, the country is on the brink of acknowledging a devastating act of violence committed by foreign forces from Eritrea. Up to 800 civilians were reportedly murdered at a church in the city of Axum, and the world watched in horror as the events unfolded. The violence was sparked by a dispute over postponed elections due to COVID-19 restrictions, with the state of Tigray going ahead with the election despite orders from the federal government to halt. The events in Ethiopia serve as a reminder of the destructive tendency towards violent political purging that we have witnessed in the past, from the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia to the 2021 Capitol assault in the United States. Indeed, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia most painfully demonstrated the consequences of a collapsing state.
It's tempting to jump to conclusions when we witness history being made from afar. In the case of Ethiopia's recent violence and turmoil, it might be easy to attribute it solely to the postponed elections due to COVID-19 restrictions. However, the reality is likely much more complex and nuanced than that. It's important to consider the deeper historical context and not let our own biases cloud our understanding of the situation. For instance, it's worth noting that the federal government, formerly dominated by the Tigray People's Liberation Front, may now be in a defensive position. By taking a closer look at the bigger picture, we can gain a more accurate and well-rounded understanding of the events unfolding before us.
Tigrai is The home of the Ark of the covenant, the land of the Just, brave, free and fair. We have nothing to apologize in our history, but we have everything to be proud of !!. -Tigrai-Online.com
Ethiopia is a country located in the Horn of Africa, with a complex history and diverse cultural makeup. It is often oversimplified as being divided between a Christian, agricultural, Amharic-speaking highlands region and a Muslim, tribal lowlands region. However, this is an oversimplification and does not take into account the many different ethnic groups and cultural practices that exist within the country.
One of these ethnic groups is the Tigrayans, who are native to the region of Tigray in northern Ethiopia. The city of Axum, which has a rich history dating back to the time of ancient Rome, is located in Tigray. The Tigrayans have played a significant role in the development of Ethiopian culture, with the Ge'ez writing script and Ethiopian Christianity both having originated in Tigray. Despite its cultural wealth, Tigray has often been economically disadvantaged compared to other regions in Ethiopia, such as the neighboring country of Eritrea and the traditional heartland of modern Ethiopia, Amhara.
The current issues facing Ethiopia can be traced back to the 25-year communist rule of the country, known as the Derg regime. During this time, Ethiopia witnessed many of the same kinds of crimes and atrocities that were committed by the Soviet Union, albeit on a smaller scale and over a shorter period of time.
The Derg regime, which came to power in Ethiopia after deposing and likely starving to death the former emperor, Haile Selassie, was a totalitarian regime that terrorized the country's cultural and economic elite, who were primarily from the Amhara ethnic group. The Derg targeted anyone who posed a potential threat to their rule, committing massacres, show trials, imprisoning people in gulags, and murdering political opposition. After consolidating their power in the center of the country, the Derg implemented policies of collectivization, forced relocation, and famine in the rural provinces. These pro-death policies ultimately weakened the regime and made it vulnerable on multiple military fronts
The Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) were both resistance movements that sought to overthrow the communist Derg regime in Ethiopia. The EPLF aimed to create a new state, while the TPLF sought to take control of the existing Ethiopian state. Both movements recognized the moral bankruptcy of the Derg regime and took different approaches to dealing with its declining power. The EPLF saw the opportunity for secession, while the TPLF sought to supplant the regime.
These two movements, which had a shared culture and language, were both based in the peripheral regions of Ethiopia and sought to challenge the power of the center. Despite their differences in approach, they were both working towards the same goal of overthrowing the oppressive Derg regime. These two cousins from the periphery, of related culture and shared language, took opposite approaches to the declining power of the center.
Tigray is a region located in the northern part of Ethiopia. It has a long history of being the entry point for invasions and conquests of Ethiopia. Throughout the millennia, Tigray has been the site of much warfare and has been devastated as a result. In the 19th century, a survey found that Tigray had more firearms than the rest of Ethiopia combined, indicating the region's strategic importance and its frequent involvement in conflicts. Despite this history of violence and instability, Tigray has also been the birthplace of some of Ethiopia's most influential leaders. One such leader was Tewodros, the first modern Emperor of Ethiopia, who is known for bringing an end to the anarchy that had plagued the country for many years. Tewodros was a Tigrayan, further highlighting the region's role in shaping the history of Ethiopia.
It was by the decisive victory at Adowa (in Tigray) that Ethiopia became the only independent indigenous state in Black Africa. The victory at the Battle of Adowa in 1896 was a significant event in the history of Ethiopia, as it resulted in the country remaining the only independent indigenous state in Black Africa. This victory was particularly significant for Tigray, as the battle took place in the region and was a decisive moment in the defense of Ethiopia's independence. The victory at Adowa is still celebrated in Ethiopia as a national holiday.
After the victory at Adowa, Ethiopia was ruled by a series of emperors, including Haile Selassie, who was Amharic. Haile Selassie's rule was marked by modernization and attempts to modernize the country, but it was also marked by conflict and repression.
It is true that Tigray has a history of being particularly affected by conflict and violence, and has made significant sacrifices in the defense of Ethiopia's independence. The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPDRF) was a coalition of armed groups that fought against the military government of Mengistu Haile Mariam in the late 20th century. The EPDRF eventually emerged victorious and established a new government in 1991.
During the long and brutal conflict, Tigray was one of the regions most affected by violence and famine. It is estimated that the conflict, which lasted for several decades, resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom were from Tigray. The sacrifices made by Tigrayans were a significant factor in the EPDRF's eventual victory, and the region has continued to be a stronghold of the EPDRF government in the years since. Despite the challenges that Tigray has faced, it remains an important and influential region in Ethiopia, with a rich history and culture. The sacrifices made by Tigrayans in the defense of their country are significant. Just as the 30 years war is said to have killed a quarter of all Germans in the 1600s due to violence induced famine and disease, the death toll in Tigray was devastating.
Oromia is the largest region of Ethiopia, located in the central and western parts of the country. It is home to a diverse array of ethnic groups, including the Oromo people, who make up the largest portion of the population. The official language of Oromia is Oromo, and the region has a rich cultural heritage. Oromia is known for its agricultural production, including coffee, which is a major export for Ethiopia. After the fall of the Derg, the coffee industry in Ethiopia underwent a process of liberalization and privatization. The government began to encourage the development of smallholder coffee farms, and many farmers began to shift from growing food crops to coffee. This led to a rapid increase in coffee production in Ethiopia, and the country became one of the top coffee producing nations in Africa.
Ethiopia is a nation in turmoil, plagued by political instability and unrest. The country is home to a large population of young people who are struggling to find employment and a sense of purpose. This chronic underemployment, particularly among educated youth, has created a volatile situation, with many young men feeling frustrated and willing to fight for change.
The current state of the country is a source of concern for many Ethiopians, as the popular mood seems to be beyond the ability of the political elite to defuse through consensus. It is a time of great uncertainty and tension, with the potential for further conflict always present. It remains to be seen how the situation will play out, but one thing is certain: Ethiopia's future hangs in the balance.
It is clear that Ethiopia is currently facing a number of significant challenges, including political instability and ongoing conflicts. The situation in Tigray, in particular, has raised concerns about the potential for further violence in the region.
The fact that Eritrea is occupying Tigray and is allied with the Oromo and Amhara-dominated Prosperity Party government has added to the tension and has raised fears that Tigray may be at risk of further violence in the coming year. The situation in Tigray is further complicated by the fact that the region has a long history of being the site of conflicts and invasions, and has already suffered significant losses and hardships as a result.
The future of Ethiopia is uncertain at this time, and it is not clear whether the country will be able to move forward with a new phase of democratization or whether it may be at risk of collapse. The possibility of further violence and instability is a concern, and it is not clear whether the nation will be able to overcome these challenges. The fact that Ethiopia has already experienced the successful secession of one region, Eritrea, has led some to question whether the country may eventually become a "legal fiction" or a thing of the past. It is important for all parties involved to work towards a peaceful resolution and to find a way forward for the country.
Notes:
EPRDF. The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was the name given to the umbrella organisation which allied the TPLF with a myriad of other anti-Derg movements, representing a broad spectrum of opinion, ethnic and linguistic backgrounds, at the end of the 1980s. EPRDF forces captured Addis Ababa, only days after the EPLF had entered Asmara, in 1991 and the movement became the basis for the new coalition government of Ethiopia.
EPLF. Formed by an amalgam of disenchanted former members of the ELF in the early 1970s, the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) was predominantly led by, and composed of, Tigrinya-speaking highland Christians but also sought to recruit beyond the highland provinces of Eritrea. Purportedly secular, it adopted Marxist rhetoric (and a number of apparently Marxist policies) in its early years, and sought to bring about a popular and inclusive revolution, regarding campaigns in health care and literacy programmes in rural areas as part and parcel of that revolution, alongside the physical struggle with Ethiopian 'colonialism'. Structured according to the principles of democratic centralism, it was a highly disciplined and remarkably effective military, social and political force; it succeeded in expelling its older rival, the ELF, from the field by 1981, securing for itself the position of the sole movement representing the Eritrean people inside Eritrea. After its strategic withdrawal [worthy of it's own study in terms of it's riskiness and effectiveness] to the north of Eritrea in the late 1970s, it survived several fierce Ethiopian offensives before going on the offensive in the mid-1980s, combining both guerrilla and conventional means of warfare. The EPLF broke out of its northern stronghold in 1988 with the capture of the town of Afabet, and in the next two years overran much of the country with the exception of several besieged Ethiopian urban garrisons; in 1991 it entered Asmara, simultaneously assisting the TPLF in the capture of Addis Ababa, and set up the Provisional Government of Eritrea. Having overseen a resoundingly successful referendum for Eritrean independence in 1993, the following year it reformulated itself as the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), which is the EPLF in all but name.
The PFDJ remains the sole legal, and of course ruling, party in Eritrea, while almost all members of the Eritrean government, from the President downward, are former EPLF fighters.
(REID, 2004)
The current Prosperity Party has inherited the structure of the EPRDF but has jettisoned some of the ethnic identity elements and all of the TPLF.
How does a small minority control a country of over 100 million people, maintain economic growth, reduce infant mortality and keep relative peace for 25 years? The TPLF achieved this by avoiding extremism, tempering greed, promoting development and reserving a portion of the state structure for local control. Lets pray that the next phase is simply a further opening of Ethiopia to democracy.
Sources:
Berhe, A. (2004). The Origins of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. African Affairs, 103(413), 569-592.
Reid, R. (2003). Old Problems in New Conflicts: Some Observations on Eritrea and Its Relations with Tigray, from Liberation Struggle to Inter-State War. Africa: Journal of the International African Institute, 73(3), 369-401.
Lakemann, T., & Lierl, M. (2020). (Rep.). German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA).
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