On Forests First, Solar Powered Hydrogen Cars later.

Social cost of carbon, high?

Estimates, complex and vast

Difficult to determine

Marginal abatement cost

Reducing emissions, the cost

Low-cost, best option.

Low-cost mitigation, wise

Focus on forests, REDD+ right

Marginal utility, high.

It is not our destiny as humans to be agents of entropy. Entropy is a thermodynamic concept that refers to the natural tendency of a system to become more disordered and chaotic over time. The term is often used to describe the overall increase in disorder.

While human actions can contribute to entropy in specific systems by increasing pollution or causing damage to the natural environment, humans can also work to reduce entropy by organizing systems, creating order, and implementing conservation measures. Humans can generate and reduce entropy.

Yes, it is true that the process of manufacturing a well-ordered car involves the creation of entropy on Earth. The production of a car requires the extraction of raw materials, the processing of those materials into component parts, the assembly of those parts into a finished vehicle, and the transportation of the finished product to the customer. All of these steps require energy and result in the release of waste heat and other forms of entropy. The transformation of energy and materials from a disordered to an ordered state, as in the creation of a car, is accompanied by an increase in the overall entropy of the Earth system. The meaningful impact to the Earth depends on our specific action, and our own mitigation of that action. One such entropic step and attempted mitigation is climate change and the worldwide efforts to prevent it.

The concept of man-made climate change and its potential impact on our planet is rooted in basic scientific principles and theories. For example, Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, first proposed the idea of greenhouse gases and their effect on global temperature over a century ago. The laws of physics and chemistry, as described by Sir Isaac Newton and other great scientists, also play a crucial role in our understanding of atmospheric science and the impact of human activities on the environment. The changing composition of the atmosphere due to increased levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is well-established through extensive scientific research and measurements. However, the timeline for these effects is less certain. Despite this uncertainty, some advocates have framed the issue as beyond debate and instead attribute it a religious fervor, which is an unscientific approach. Regardless of the immediacy of the threat posed by climate change, preserving forests remains a critical solution, as they provide numerous ecological benefits regardless of whether climate change is a near- or long-term risk to humanity.

Forest Landscapes are key to fighting climate change. New technologies may allow better remote monitoring and support to local communities charged with protecting forest ecosystems under binding Carbon offset agreements. There may also be a possibility to bypass corrupt and distant governments in the nations where many of the remaining forests exist, by using creative means and alternative financing arrangements such as block chain. Forest protection initiatives such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) not only provide cost-effective carbon sequestration benefits, but also support local communities. Community-based conservation initiatives and sustainable forest management plans, such as those in the Amazon Rainforest, have been successful in reducing deforestation and protecting habitats. Additionally, forest protection offers a range of co-benefits, including supporting local livelihoods, conserving biodiversity, and improving air quality, making it a more attractive option than higher-cost mitigation options in developing countries. The GEF plays a critical role in financing these efforts, and promoting innovative approaches to conservation such as community-based forest management and offset credits.

Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs) and Climate Change Mitigation

Introduction: IFLs are large, undisturbed areas of forest that play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of climate change and preserving biodiversity.
Protecting IFLs: A variety of approaches can be taken to protect IFLs, including the creation of protected areas, sustainable forest management plans, and community-based conservation initiatives. The REDD+ ((Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) ) program is one important initiative aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) is an international initiative aimed at mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the deforestation and degradation of forests. It was first introduced at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2005 and has since evolved to include the conservation and sustainable management of forests.
The funding mechanisms for REDD+ include both public and private funding, as well as results-based payments for reducing emissions. The scale of REDD+ funding is significant, over 40 countries have participated in REDD+ activities and there are over 900 ongoing or completed REDD+ projects worldwide. Despite this progress, there is still a long way to go to fully realize the potential of REDD+ to reduce emissions and conserve forests.
The Role of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF): The GEF is a key player in efforts to protect IFLs, providing financing and technical support to countries and organizations working to preserve these critical ecosystems. The GEF also promotes innovative approaches to conservation, such as community-based forest management and offset credits.
Success of Efforts: An example of the success of these efforts can be seen in the Amazon Rainforest, where community-based conservation initiatives and sustainable forest management plans have helped reduce deforestation and protect habitats.

Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)

Definition: SCC estimates the economic damage from each additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions.
Variance in Estimates: There is no consensus on the exact SCC value, with estimates ranging from a few dollars to several hundred dollars per ton. The variance in SCC estimates highlights the complex and uncertain nature of estimating the economic impacts of climate change.

Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC)

Definition: The MAC is the cost of reducing one additional unit of emissions.
Comparison: The MAC for protecting forests as a means of carbon sequestration can be significantly lower than the MAC for eliminating gasoline vehicles.
Benefits Beyond Carbon Abatement: Both options have costs, but they also have benefits beyond just carbon abatement, such as improved air quality and energy security for electric vehicles and ecosystem services for forest protection.
Final Decision: The decision on which approach to adopt will depend on a range of factors, and creative solutions incorporating both strategies may be needed.

Low-Cost Mitigation Options and the REDD+ Mechanism

Prudent Approach: One could argue that focusing on low-cost mitigation options such as forest protection, particularly through the REDD+ mechanism and the support of the GEF, is a prudent approach given the volatility and uncertainty around SCC estimates. Should the actual SCC emitted today be far lower than today’s estimates, the marginal utility loss will be mitigated by the relatively low cost of the forest protection program. If SCC is high but variance is high, MAC should be low. If SCC is high but Variance is low, than MAC should be high. If SCC is low than MAC should be low. Marginal Utility is optimal when the MAC matches the appropriate SCC level as indicated above. The ideal MAC (Marginal Abatement Cost) to obtain optimum marginal utility is determined by the inverse relationship between MAC and the variance of the SCC (Social Cost of Carbon). If the variance of the SCC is low [but the SCC is high], the ideal MAC would be high, and vice versa. In other words, as the variance of the SCC increases, the ideal MAC decreases to achieve the highest marginal utility.
Cost-Effectiveness: Protecting IFLs through the REDD+ mechanism can provide cost-effective carbon sequestration benefits and address the challenge of deforestation and forest degradation. The GEF can play a critical role in financing these efforts. The benefits of forest protection are more predictable and likely to persist over the long-term, while many technology based proposals are new and untested.

Focusing on low-cost mitigation options such as forest protection through REDD+ and the support of the GEF can be a risk-informed approach to addressing climate change while also providing crucial ecological co-benefits. The benefits are far better when the forest is protected intact than when the forest is re-planted. Let's keep the forests intact now, and while we have them. First things first.

Emerging methods may lead the way beyond the scope of our current vision.

Blockchain technology can be used to facilitate secure and transparent transactions between buyers and sellers, increasing the efficiency of the market for REDD+ credits, ensuring that funds reach the intended beneficiaries, and providing a tamper-proof record of credit creation, ownership, and transfer.

Smart contracts can be used to ensure the value of carbon offsets adjusts based on carbon sequestration levels, while blockchain can help prevent parties with more power from exploiting those with fewer rights, and address issues of local leakage by ensuring credits are only issued for verifiable emissions reductions.

However, using blockchain technology also carries potential risks, such as reinforcing existing power dynamics, diminishing the roles of centralized authorities, and locking out those without power from the system. Furthermore, challenges arise in ensuring property rights are met, and data standardization is necessary to integrate various data sources, including satellite imagery and local monitoring, for transparent and efficient operation of the market.

And Here We Are...

Notes:

As a writer, I am often inclined towards utilizing a traditional narrative style in my writing. However, in an effort to enhance clarity, I have decided to experiment with a business summary style, which frequently incorporates the use of bullet points. The use of bullet points in a business summary allows for succinct and organized delivery of information, making it easier for the reader to understand and retain the presented information. I hope to achieve improved clarity through this experiment, as the clear and concise presentation of information is crucial in business communication.

Feedback is welcome.

Ecosphere+. (2018). REDD Unchained: Blockchain and Climate Change Mitigation. Retrieved from https://ecosphere.plus/2018/11/05/redd-unchained-blockchain-and-climate-change-mitigation-2/
Jiang, W., Huang, S., Zhang, X., & Li, J. (2022). Research on the Application of Blockchain in the Management of Carbon Trading in China. Applied Sciences, 12(8), 3723. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12083723
Lovett, J. C. (2019). Blockchain's potential in forest offsets, the voluntary carbon markets, and REDD+. Environmental Conservation, 46(2), 89-96. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892919000032
Reid, J. W., & Lovejoy, T. E. (2022). Ever Green: Saving Big Forests to Save the Planet. WW Norton.